EXCELSIOR FINANCIAL EDITORIAL – september 2022

A new sovereign debt crisis? The strength of the dollar could lead to a sovereign debt crisis.  While the US dollar has been the one consistent winning trade of 2022, it could force several countries hit by economic hardship to default on their debt. As economic...

EXCELSIOR FINANCIAL EDITORIAL – AUGUST 2022

What defines a recession? July’s US GDP release started a confusing and curious debate about what a recession actually is. The -0.9% growth reading for Q2 would meet the generally accepted definition of a recession, or two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth....

EXCELSIOR FINANCIAL EDITORIAL – July 2022

Is the Fed engineering a recession? The US Federal Reserve made a bold statement in June by hiking rates by 0.75%, the biggest rise in almost 30 years.  It is widely expected that July’s rate hike will also be for 0.75%, showing just how committed the Fed is to get...

EXCELSIOR FINANCIAL EDITORIAL – JUNE 2022

NO RECESSION FOR NOW     It’s looking increasingly likely that a recession will be avoided in 2022, despite evidence that growth prospects are weakening.  The jobs report for May showed that hiring is still expanding at a healthy rate. Manufacturing and...

EXCELSIOR Financial Editorial – May 2022

The Fed conundrum   Last week, US GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.4% which was worse than forecast. At the same time, the US just like the rest of the world is facing very high inflation and with no meaningful drop in sight, at least in the short term.  As a...

EXCELSIOR Financial Editorial – April 2022

Recession looming? You may have heard lately that the two and ten-year yield curves have inverted and that it’s an indication a recession is coming. What it means in short is that the bond market isn’t buying the idea that the Fed is going to be able to engineer a...